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 Is the economy really improving?

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PostSubject: Is the economy really improving?   Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:36 am

I have been reading a media covers on improving economy, out of recessions and recovery is on the way. In the recent news report that number of air passenger in changi has grown. The oil price have gone up, that is because of weak USD and shortage of supply. There was also a stream of bad news of bad earnings and lingering unemployment.

What do you think will happen over the next few months... Is it going be to a dip soon or long road to recovery?
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PostSubject: Re: Is the economy really improving?   Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:18 am

Hey Bro...

This is my personal feelings...

My take is that as long as the economy grows at a very gradual pace.....we should be ok. With most major countries releasing massive stimulus packages, there will always be a danger of hyper-inflation if the economy grows very rapidly. I get scared when i read about property prices in SG going up and people are getting ready to invest in property again. But this bubbles burst, I dont think govts will have stimulus packages anymore, economy goes down and inflation is likely to be up due to the amount of cash in the market, causing wat we call stagflation (a situation where economy crashes but inflation is high)
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PostSubject: Re: Is the economy really improving?   Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:13 am

My take:

The economy as a whole is improving, some may say its is emotionally driven, some say real green shoots, but Q3/Q4 09 vs Q1 09, there are stark differences:

1) MNCs are starting to hire again
2) IPOs are being listed in Q4 vs practically none in Q4
3) Market was on an uptrend rally run with slight corrections here and there
4) Layoffs while still happening (ie. HP) are controlled and not mass retrenchments
5) Property market boom...

A lot of my customers are back with their orders again and xmas boom is coming slightly earlier this year, a lot of manfacturers are ramming up now in anticipation of Dec rush.

So i say we can take some +ve signs that economy is doing better than before, go spend a bit more, help our local economy by playing more golf, take your loved ones for a much deserved holiday...

now the question is whether this uptrend will continue into 2010, even global biz are asking this question.... so i guess we can afford to enjoy a little for our hard work but with some prudence..

my 2 cents..
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PostSubject: Re: Is the economy really improving?   Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:19 am

the newspapers carries positive news of recovery (not just singapore but worldwide).

however most of my contacts tells me its far from over. these people are head of coorporations (they know what they are talking about) and they keep telling me the same thing.......that next year will be worse than this.

i think better err on the side of caution and be prudent. (by all means spend but stay away from the big ticket item for a year or 2 more). our gahment stimulus package can only do so much and its meant to spike spending not help us get out of bad investment situation. also i remember its election year next year so....

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PostSubject: Re: Is the economy really improving?   Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:37 am

With all the recent positive news... I'm guessing we'll see GST go up to 10%.

Clearing my Storeroom of golfing goodies. Please help support Smile

"A ball will always come to rest halfway down a hill, unless there is sand or water at the bottom." Henry Beard
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